Those of you who read the Heath Property Blog will
know I am not the sort of person who pulls punches nor someone who ever fails
to give a forthright and straight talking opinion – so here are my thoughts for
the 4,164 Heath homeowners and landlords.
According to the Halifax, property values in Heath
have risen by 4.65%, not bad when you consider the Cardiff average (as a whole)
is only 2.8%. When one considers inflation is currently running at -0.1% (ie consumer/ retail prices are dropping)
and average salary growth is only around 2.5% pa, this is bad news for first
time buyers as property affordability continues to decrease.
For the 632 Heath landlords there are some concerns
that the higher stamp duty taxes, announced by George Osborne a few weeks ago
in the Autumn Statement for buy to let landlords, will effect first time buyer affordability
and that the possibility of UK interest rate rises in 2016 will really dampen
the buy to let property market. I believe the real issue in the Heath property
market is the shortage of property to buy, as people either worry there will be
no suitable house to move to, or cannot afford to upgrade.
Let us look at the
shortage of properties for sale. Back in May 2011, on average 179 properties
were for sale at any one time in the Heath. By 2012 it had dropped to an
average of 139 and in 2013 it had slipped to 117. In the Spring of 2015 that
figure was always in the late 70’s, but has since drifted downwards to today’s
figure of 68. On the face of it this means there is less choice for Heath buyers
but it also means, with a restricted supply of properties for sale, property
prices are being kept high for Heath house sellers.
Everything isn’t all doom and gloom though ... again back in
May 2011 the average property in Heath took 92 days to find a buyer. Latest
figures state it currently takes 87 days to find a buyer (a drop of 5%). However,
when you delve even deeper, the best performing type of property today in Heath
is the 3 bed, which only takes 59 days to find a buyer (on average) compared to
the 5 bed, which takes 111 days. It just goes to show, even though the average
has dropped since 2011, how varied that change has been!
So, back to the question everyone is asking .... What
will happen to property values in Heath in 2016?
Heath has always been attractive to the
homebuyers of Cardiff and seems to attract a certain type of person. It might not
surprise you to find out that Heath has one of the highest proportion of people
educated to degree level and above (3,074 of the 10,249 Heath residents have a
degree or above) ... an impressive 29.99% compared to the Cardiff average of 23.9%
and Welsh average of 14.1%. With such high demand from educated people (who
often have better jobs and can afford better houses), I am going to suggest
property values will rise by between 3.5% and 5.2% in 2016 in Heath ... nothing
out of the ordinary but always better than Cardiff as a whole and unless
something cataclysmic happens in the world, 2016 will be similar to 2015!
